Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving in a corrective trend, trading around the level of 1.0549.

The downward trend is developing against a lack of key EU macroeconomic data associated with the transition period between the third and fourth quarters. However, investors took note of August retail sales in Italy, which fell 0.4% after rising 0.4% earlier, slowing the increase from 2.8% to 2.4% YoY. Tomorrow, the country will publish a report on industrial production for the same period: it is expected to be 0.0%, which will increase the indicator from –2.1% YoY previously.

The American dollar, which now determines the movement of the asset, after weakening at the beginning of last week, is trying to consolidate around the 106.000 mark in the USD Index against Friday’s data on the number of workers in the non-agricultural sector in September, which reflected an increase in the indicator from 227.0K to 336.0K, while employment in the private non-agricultural sector rose from 177.0K to 263.0K, due to which the September unemployment rate in the country remained at 3.8%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting in a narrow downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.0610–1.0340.

Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram forms corrective bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0750.

Support levels: 1.0480, 1.0300.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 1.0480 with the target at 1.0300. Stop loss – 1.0560. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 1.0630 with the target at 1.0750. Stop loss – 1.0570.