Gold has lost $100 an ounce to $1,820, its lowest level since March. Economists at UBS analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Near-term risks to Gold remain

Uncertainty over where US yields and the Dollar will peak are a headwind for Gold in the near term. The metal typically comes under pressure when risk-free rates rise and when the US currency strengthens, which raises the price for non-dollar investors and suppresses demand.

With opportunity costs for Gold on the rise, we now also see a more constrained outlook for Gold, with the metal ending the year around $1,850 from $1,950 previously, and rising to $1,950 by the end of June 2024 down from $2,100 previously.