NZD/USD: FURTHER LOSSES UNLIKELY ABOVE 0.5970 – UOB

NZD/USD needs to clear the 0.5970 level to reduce the risks of further retracements, argue Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: We highlighted yesterday that NZD “could dip to 0.5880, but any decline is likely part of a lower trading range of 0.5880/0.5930.” NZD then traded in a slightly lower range than expected (0.5871/0.5922) before closing largely unchanged at 0.5913 ( 0.08%). NZD is likely to continue to range trade, even though the underlying tone has firmed a tad, and this suggests a higher range of 0.5895/0.5950. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Two days ago (03 Oct, spot at 0.5945), we held the view that NZD “is likely to weaken, but any decline is likely to face strong support at 0.5880.” Yesterday, NZD dipped briefly to a low of 0.5871 and then rebounded. Downward momentum has not improved, but there is a chance for NZD to test September’s low of 0.5860 before the risk of a more sustained and robust rebound increases. However, if NZD breaks above 0.5970 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday), it would indicate that it is not weakening further.