Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is declining slightly, consolidating near 0.6370 and the local highs of October 2. Market activity remains low as investors await the release of the September US labor market report.

Forecasts suggest a reduction in the Unemployment Rate from 3.8% to 3.7%, and the dynamics of Nonfarm Payrolls may decrease from 187.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to remain virtually unchanged at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 4.3% on an annual basis. However, given the data published on Wednesday from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector, it is likely that the real dynamics will be worse than expected, and the pressure on the position of the American currency will increase.

In turn, the instrument is moderately supported by statistics from Australia, published the day before. Export volumes in August added 4.0% after -2.0% in the previous month, while Imports showed zero dynamics after growing by 3.0% in July. As a result, the country's Trade Surplus rose from 7.32 billion Australian dollars to 9.64 billion Australian dollars, while analysts had expected an increase to 8.73 billion Australian dollars.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is slightly narrowing from above, being spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (trying to settle above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, retreating from the level of "20" with a buy signal and signaling in favor of the development of corrective growth in the near future.

Resistance levels: 0.6379, 0.6400, 0.6425, 0.6450.

Support levels: 0.6356, 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6250.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.6379 with the target of 0.6425. Stop-loss — 0.6356. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.6379 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.6356 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 0.6300. Stop-loss — 0.6379.