EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows moderate growth, developing the corrective momentum formed the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0520 for a breakout, waiting for new drivers to emerge. At the same time, macroeconomic data from the EU published yesterday turned out to be predominantly negative. Retail Sales volumes in August lost 1.2% after -0.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.3%, and the annual figure dropped from -1.0% to -2.1%, which also turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts at the level of -1.2%. Meanwhile, the eurozone Producer Price Index added 0.6% in August after -0.5% a month earlier, in line with experts' expectations, and in annual terms the indicator decreased by 11.5% after -7.6%. In turn, statistics on the Services PMI turned out to be positive: the index from S&P Global in the eurozone in September strengthened from 48.4 points to 48.7 points with neutral forecasts. The position of the American currency came under pressure ahead of the publication of the September labor market report, as well as against the backdrop of data from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company presented the day before. In September, Employment Change in the US private sector grew by only 89.0 thousand after 180.0 thousand a month earlier, while analysts expected 153.0 thousand.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is recovering after quite active negative dynamics at the beginning of this week. The instrument is testing 1.2155 for a breakout, receiving support from the corrective decline in the US currency ahead of the publication of the September labor market report, which could significantly affect the US Federal Reserve's plans for borrowing costs later this year. At the moment, only about 35.0% of analysts believe that the regulator may decide to increase the interest rate by another 25 basis points before the end of this year. Pressure on the position of the American currency was also exerted by a report published yesterday from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector: in September, the growth rate of the indicator slowed down from 180.0 thousand to 89.0 thousand, while analysts expected 153.0 thousand. In addition, the Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in September fell from 54.5 points to 53.6 points, and the same indicator from S&P Global went down from 50.2 points to 50.1 points. In turn, British business activity indices supported the growth of "bullish" sentiment in the market: the Services PMI from S&P Global strengthened from 47.2 points to 49.3 points with neutral forecasts.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is testing 0.5950 for a breakout, reacting to a sharp increase in corrective sentiment for the US dollar ahead of the publication of macroeconomic statistics on the national labor market. It is worth noting that the data presented the day before from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) somewhat lowered expectations regarding the September report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which ultimately had a negative impact on the exchange rate of the American currency. Thus, Employment Change added only 89.0 thousand after 180.0 thousand in the previous month, which turned out to be significantly lower than forecasts of 153.0 thousand. Yesterday, investors also focused on the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). As expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50%, noting that it still expects the effect of previously taken measures aimed at tightening monetary policy. In general, officials do not exclude the possibility of a further increase in borrowing costs, but everything will depend on macroeconomic data.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, developing the uncertain corrective impetus that formed on Tuesday, reacting to the instrument’s attempt to consolidate above the psychological level of 150.00. Trading participants still expect currency interventions from the Bank of Japan, as happened last year, but for now the regulator maintains a wait-and-see attitude. The yen is also moderately supported by macroeconomic statistics: the Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank, published the day before, rose from 53.3 points to 53.8 points in September with neutral forecasts. In turn, the US Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) decreased from 54.5 points to 53.6 points, which fully coincided with market expectations. Another negative factor for the dollar was the September report from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company published the day before, which reflected an increase in employment in the private sector by only 89.0 thousand, which turned out to be more than twice as bad as the previous month’s data, and also fell short of 153.0 thousand that analysts were counting on. The data from ADP are important ahead of the release of a September report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts for which suggest that the number of Nonfarm Payrolls will slow down from 187.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand, while the Unemployment Rate will correct from 3.8% to 3.7%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is recovering, correcting after a strong "bearish" rally, as a result of which the instrument updated record lows from March 9. The instrument is testing the level of 1830.00, receiving support from technical factors. The recovery of gold’s position is facilitated by the correction of the American currency across almost the entire market spectrum against the backdrop of macroeconomic statistics from the United States. A report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector, which was published yesterday, reflected a slowdown in dynamics from 180.0 thousand to 89.0 thousand, while analysts expected 153.0 thousand. The Services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in September fell from 54.5 points to 53.6 points, and the same indicator from S&P Global went down from 50.2 points to 50.1 points. In turn, a strong increase in US Treasury yields puts additional pressure on the instrument's quotes. The day before, the rate on 10-year bonds rose to 4.850%, updating record highs from 2007 and approaching the psychological level of 5.000%, while the rate on 30-year bonds had already exceeded this level. The rise in yields can also be seen in the EU, where German 10-year bonds are trading at 3.000% for the first time since 2011. This suggests that markets expect interest rates to remain at high levels for a longer period.