USD/JPY COULD HOLD ABOVE 145 ON A SIX-MONTH VIEW – RABOBANK

USD/JPY is trading at a marginal new high near 149.80. Economists at Rabobank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Intervention a matter of when USD/JPY cross 150

While fears of FX intervention will be adding to psychological resistance at the USD/JPY 150 level, USD strength suggests upside risks remain in the currency pair near-term. 

While we can not rule out a little further normalisation in BoJ policy in the coming months, the scope and pace are almost certainly set to remain cautious. Given our view that broad-based USD strength will sustain into 2024, we see risk that USD/JPY could hold above 145 on a six-month view barring any major surprise from the BoJ.