NZD/USD ended the week just shy of 0.60. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Moves of late have been very USD-centric

Quarter-end rebalancing may well have added to volatility but moves of late have been very USD-centric, and it’s hard to see that backdrop changing much as we head into year-end, and into this week’s run of key US data (ISMs, payrolls, unemployment). 

But this week will also be about the RBNZ (and via correlations, the RBA). We think the Kiwi is more likely to benefit from a more hawkish tone if we see it, but that may only help it hold its own against the USD, rather than overcome USD strength.