The United States of America

USD is weakening against EUR and GBP but has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

Investors are focusing on the latest labor market data, which has increased uncertainty regarding the future actions of the US Federal Reserve. The number of new vacancies in August increased from 8.920M to 9.610M compared to the forecast of a decrease to 8.800M, which raised investor fears that the regulator would be forced to return to “hawkish” rhetoric. However, today, the mood of experts has changed against the publication of September employment data from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company: the number of new jobs adjusted by 89.0K, significantly less than both the forecast of 153.0K and the previous value in 180.0K, while almost all of them were created in the service sector. The market hopes that there will be no more interest rate hikes this year. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, said that the slowdown of the national economy and falling inflation allow the regulator to refuse to increase borrowing costs but it will still be a long time before it is possible to start a cycle of reducing them.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against USD and JPY but weakening against GBP.

The September service PMI rose from 47.9 points to 48.4 points instead of the expected 48.4 points, and the composite PMI grew from 46.7 to 47.2 points versus 47.1 points. In the German economy, the service PMI rose from 47.3 points to 50.3 points, entering the growth zone, as a result of which the composite PMI adjusted from 44.6 points to 46.4 points, although experts expected 46.2 points. The slowdown in the European non-manufacturing sector continues, although slower than expected. August retail sales data disappointed investors: the figure was –1.2% instead of the expected 0.3% MoM and –2.1% compared to –1.2% YoY. Continued high inflation and rising interest rates continue to force citizens to cut spending, reducing demand, which could lead to a deepening economic downturn in the region.

The United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against USD, JPY, and EUR.

The September service PMI fell from 49.5 points to 49.3 points instead of the expected serious drop to 47.2 points, and the composite PMI fell from 48.6 points to 48.5 points compared to forecasts of 46.8 points. The rate of slowdown in indicators was very insignificant compared to expert calculations, as a result of which the decline in the national economy may not be so deep. Experts note that many companies are confident that demand will soon recover amid a significant decline in inflation.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR and GBP but has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

The quotes are gradually losing their gains after a sharp strengthening on Tuesday: experts believe that the government carried out currency intervention but Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki would not comment on these assumptions. The official reiterated that currencies should trade steadily, reflecting fundamentals, and reaffirmed the determination to take necessary action if the yen becomes too volatile. The September manufacturing PMI fell from 54.3 points to 53.8 points instead of the expected 53.3 points, while, unlike most major economies, the Japanese services sector continues to grow, offsetting the decline in industry and supporting the economic recovery.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against USD and JPY but has ambiguous dynamics against EUR and GBP.

Today, the September service PMI was published: the indicator increased from 47.8 points to 51.8 points, exceeding the expected increase to 50.5 points, and the composite PMI – from 50.2 points to 51.5 points. The industry resumed growth after a two-month decline, maintaining the stability of the national economy.

Oil

Oil prices are adjusting downwards.

The intentions of Saudi Arabia and Russia to continue production cuts until the end of this year are offset by investor concerns about demand caused by poor macroeconomic indicators. At today’s meeting of the OPEC monitoring group, no new decision was made: representatives of the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia confirmed a further adjustment in volumes by –1.0M barrels per day until the end of this year, and Russian officials said that the country will also continue to reduce exports by 300.0K barrels per day in the same period. At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that these measures helped balance the oil market. However, today, the quotes are weakening due to the publication of poor EU service PMI. Yesterday’s report on oil reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a reduction by 4.210M barrels. Experts are awaiting a similar report from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), which may reflect a decline of 9.446M barrels, which could support the asset.