EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is virtually unchanged, remaining close to 1.0465 and the record lows of early December 2022. Activity in the market is declining after negative dynamics for the instrument at the beginning of the week, when macroeconomic publications from the United States again contributed to the growth of the American currency. In particular, the Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in September rose from 47.6 points to 49.0 points, while analysts expected 47.7 points, and the indicator from S&P Global strengthened from 48.9 points to 49.8 points, which also turned out to be significantly better than analysts’ neutral forecasts. In turn, data from Europe remained mixed: the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global for the eurozone as a whole remained at 43.4 points, and separately in Germany it slowed down from 39.8 points to 39.6 points, continuing to update record lows since 2020. Investors are also trying to gauge the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), given that interest rates are likely to remain at high levels for much longer than initially expected. The focus of trading today will be on statistics on business activity in the services sector of the EU and the USA. Also, during the day, a speech by the President of the European regulator, Christine Lagarde, is expected, as well as the publication of August data on the dynamics of producer inflation and Retail Sales in the eurozone, and in the United States, a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will be presented on the level of employment in the private sector.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is showing flat trading, consolidating near 1.2080. The instrument is trying to show corrective dynamics after a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, as a result of which quotes hit record lows of mid-March. However, the position of the American currency is still strong, and there are not enough reasons for the growth of the pound. Data from the UK, published yesterday, reflected a slowdown in the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Price Index in August from 6.9% to 6.2%, and a day earlier, markets drew attention to the decline in the Nationwide Housing Price Index in September by another 5.3%, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than analysts' expectations of a reduction of 5.8%. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in September adjusted from 44.2 points to 44.3 points with neutral forecasts. Today statistics on business activity in the services sector of the UK and the USA will be published: experts again suggest that British indicators will remain at levels around 47.0 points, while the American index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) may show a decrease from 54.5 points up to 53.6 points. In addition, the US will report private sector employment statistics ahead of the September labor market report at the end of the week. Employment in the private sector is expected to decline from 177.0 thousand to 153.0 thousand.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is trading in different directions, holding near 0.5900. The market is showing an attempt to form a corrective upward trend after a sharp decline at the beginning of this week, as a result of which the New Zealand dollar exchange rate returned to the levels of early September. At the same time, pressure on the position of the instrument comes from the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep the interest rate at 5.50%, which is fully consistent with market forecasts. At the same time, in the follow-up statement, the regulator noted that demand continues to show a steady decline. Also, although the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures were better than expected, economic growth remains subdued and could slow down in the future. Among other things, the RBNZ noted the risks of a slowdown in business and economic activity in China, which creates additional risks for New Zealand's export-oriented economy. The market will focus today on statistics from the United States on business activity in the services sector, as well as the publication of a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector: forecasts suggest that the Services PMI in September will show a slight decline from 54.5 points to 53.6 points, while the S&P Global indicator may remain at 50.2 points. In addition, ADP Employment Change growth is expected to slow down from 177.0 thousand to 153.0 thousand.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows slight growth: the day before, the instrument tried to consolidate above the psychological level of 150.00, but in the second half of the day the Japanese currency managed to regain its position, briefly correcting to the level of 147.40. In addition to strengthening technical factors, the yen is supported today by macroeconomic statistics: the Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank in September rose from 53.3 points to 53.8 points with neutral analyst forecasts. At the same time, the US dollar still maintains a fairly strong position in the market and may soon recover Tuesday’s losses, especially if macroeconomic statistics turn out to be better than preliminary estimates. Today there will be data on the Services PMI for September, as well as a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment, which will be important before the publication of September data on the US labor market on Friday. The reason for the strengthening of the Japanese currency may be expectations of foreign exchange interventions from the Bank of Japan, as happened last year. However, representatives of the regulator maintain a wait-and-see attitude, emphasizing that the time has not yet come for a full tightening of monetary policy.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is practically unchanged, holding near 1926.00. The instrument is trying to correct after a strong "bearish" rally in late September, as a result of which gold updated its record lows in early March. The development of corrective dynamics is facilitated by technical factors, as investors close some short positions ahead of the publication of a report on the US labor market at the end of the week. Today a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will be presented on employment in the private sector: forecasts suggest a slowdown from 177.0 thousand to 153.0 thousand. Data from ADP will precede the Friday publication of the September labor market report: Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase by 170.0 thousand after 187.0 thousand in the previous month, and the Unemployment Rate may adjust from 3.8% to 3.7%. In addition, today investors will evaluate September data on business activity in the US services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM): analysts predict that the index will drop from 54.5 points to 53.6 points. Meanwhile, pressure on gold is exerted by expectations of a longer period of maintaining high interest rates by global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve. Inflation rates remain above target levels so far, and the Core CPI shows worrying signs of a rebound in growth. At the same time, the level of economic activity is gradually slowing down, although the American economy is generally stable. In addition, high yields on Treasury bonds put pressure on quotes: last week the rate on ten-year securities exceeded 4.6%, updating its 16-year highs.