Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, consolidating near the 0.9215 and the highs of the end of March. Market volatility has noticeably decreased as investors expect the emergence of new drivers for the movement of the trading instrument.

On Thursday, American service PMI in September will be published: a slight reduction in the index from 54.5 points to 53.6 points is predicted, while a similar indicator from S&P Global will remain at 50.2 points. In addition, a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on employment in the private sector, according to expert calculations, will reflect a slowdown in nonfarm payrolls from 177.0K to 153.0K.

Pressure on the franc’s position comes from Swiss inflation statistics released on Tuesday: in September, the consumer price index rose from 1.6% to 1.7%, while analysts expected it to reach 1.8%. The indicator adjusted by –0.1% MoM after 0.2% earlier, which is worse than forecasts that assumed zero dynamics. Against this background, the Swiss National Bank may abandon further tightening of monetary policy and move to lower interest rates faster.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily growing: the price range is expanding from above, letting the bulls renew the highs. The MACD indicator reversed upwards, generating a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, having interrupted the corrective decline, began to rise: it does not contradict the further development of corrective dynamics but indicates that the American dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9224, 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350.

Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9175, 0.9150, 0.9100.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 0.9224 with the target at 0.9300. Stop loss – 0.9180. Implementation time: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 0.9224 and a breakdown of 0.9175 with the target at 0.9100. Stop loss – 0.9224.