After a turbulent year in 2022, the excitement in the European Gas market has subsided. Economists at Commerzbank the outlook for Gas prices.

Calm before the (winter) storm?

There has been no real shortage in the European Gas market. On the contrary, thanks to massive savings and the development of new supply sources, the supply situation this summer is even better than usual. Looking ahead to the winter, however, nervousness is high. We expect a mild recession to slow the recovery in European Gas demand. 

Provided the winter is not too harsh, the drawdown in inventories should be slow and the Gas price should not rise as much as many analysts currently expect. However, supply risks and the expected economic recovery justify higher prices next summer than this year.