GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD JUGGLES ABOVE $1,920 AS FOCUS SHIFTS TO US INFLATION

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  • Gold price is consolidating above $1,920.00 ahead of US inflation data.
  • The overall risk profile is still negative as the Fed is going to resume its policy-tightening spell.
  • Gold price is auctioning in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern.

Gold price (XAU/USD) is demonstrating a non-directional performance after correcting from a weekly high of $1,935.00 in the London session. The precious metal has turned topsy-turvy as investors are shifting their focus towards the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) after the impact of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Analysts at Well Fargo expect a surprisingly resilient labor market has helped to keep the United States economy expanding at a moderate pace despite continued fears about a recession. However, even amid more forthcoming labor supply and gradually cooling labor demand, the weight of the evidence still suggests that the labor market remains too tight to be consistent with 2% inflation.

Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have recovered decent losses generated in early Europe, portraying a recovery in the risk appetite of the market participants. The overall risk profile is still negative as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is going to resume its policy-tightening spell and will push interest rates to 5.25-5.50%. Investors should note that Fed chair Jerome Powell skipped the rate-hiking spree in its June monetary policy meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after dropping to near 102.30. A sideways auction is expected in the USD Index ahead of US inflation data. As per the consensus, monthly headline CPI elevated at a higher pace of 0.3% vs. the prior pace of 0.1%. Annualized headline inflation is expected to soften to 3.1% against the former release of 4.0%. Declining gasoline prices have decelerated headline inflation, however, the major focus will be on the core inflation data.


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