Current trend

The NZD/USD pair shows a moderate decline, quickly correcting after last Friday's rise. The instrument is testing the level of 0.6180, having won back almost half of the "bullish" activity of the previous trading session. Nevertheless, the pressure on quotes is exerted by statistics from China, indicating a slowdown in the growth of the national economy. The Consumer Price Index in June fell by 0.2%, which coincided with analysts' expectations, and in annual terms it showed zero dynamics after 0.2% in the previous month. In turn, Producer Price Index accelerated the decline from -4.6% to -5.4%.

Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand will be presented on Wednesday, when the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will take place. At the moment, the regulator is expected to leave the interest rate at 5.50%, as it was during the May meeting. On the same day, a block of data from the US will enter the market. In particular, investors will evaluate the June statistics on the Consumer Price Index, which now stands at 0.1% in monthly terms and 4.0% in annual terms.

New Zealand and the European Union signed a trade agreement, negotiations on which have been ongoing since 2018. As a result, trade turnover between the parties is expected to increase by 30.0% over the course of a decade, and annual EU exports may go up to 4.5 billion euros. In addition, European companies will pay reduced duties, which will be reduced by 140.0 million euros during the first year of the agreement.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having shown a rebound from the level of "80", reversed downwards, signaling in favor of the development of "bearish" trend in the near future.

Resistance levels: 0.6211, 0.6250, 0.6303, 0.6350.

Support levels: 0.6183, 0.6155, 0.6131, 0.6100.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 0.6155 with the target at 0.6100. Stop-loss — 0.6183. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 0.6155 as from support followed by a breakout of 0.6183 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 0.6250. Stop-loss — 0.6155.