USD/INR defends triangle lower limit at 81.60. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s technical outlook.

Rebound expected

USD/INR has evolved within a large consolidation since last October in the form of an ascending triangle. The pair recently retracted towards the 200-DMA and the lower band of the pattern; April low of 81.60 is an important support.

A short-term bounce is not ruled out towards the upper end of the formation at 82.95/83.30. An ascending triangle generally points towards potential upside.

If the pair overcomes the upper band near 83.30, next leg of uptrend is likely to materialize.  

Only if the pair fails to defend 81.60, the pullback is likely to extend.