GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD RUN-UP APPEARS MORE COMPULSIVE AS US DATA LOOMS – CONFLUENCE DETECTOR

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  • Gold Price reverses the previous day’s U-turn from two-week high, eyes the first weekly gain in four.
  • Fears of higher rates, Sino-American tension and China economic woes prod XAU/USD bulls.
  • Softer US data fails to justify hawkish Fed bets, suggesting proximity to policy pivot and favor Gold buyers in turn.
  • $20.00 trading range restricts immediate XAU/USD moves but doubts about US puts a floor under the Gold Price.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains on the front foot as markets brace for early signals of the US employment, inflation and activity conditions amid the risk-off mood. It’s worth noting, however, that the US Dollar’s struggle to justify the sour sentiment, maybe due to Wednesday’s softer US data, seems to underpin the Gold Price upside, enabling it to challenge the three-week downturn.

That said, fears of economic slowdown join the major central banks’ push for higher rates, despite softer data, to spoil the risk appetite and fuel the XAU/USD of late, due to the market’s traditional haven status. However, fears about China’s economic recovery and heavy outflow of funds from Beijing to neighboring countries prod the Gold buyers. On the same line could be the recently escalated US-China trade war, as well as geopolitical woes surrounding Russia, Ukraine and Iran.

While portraying the mood, the US stock futures drop for the third consecutive day and the Asian equities are down too. More importantly, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields jumped to a fresh three-month high before retreating in the last hour.

Looking ahead, today’s US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change for June, as well as China headlines and recession woes, will be crucial for the Gold Price directions


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