Economists at Commerzbank discuss CNY outlook.

PBocC’s efforts unlikely to reverse Yuan’s weakening trend 

As an effort to ease Yuan’s weakening pressure, the PBoC set daily fixings that were stronger than market expectations in most trading sessions since Monday last week. The fixing is the mid-point of the trading band which allows CNY to move 2% in either direction. The PBoC also vowed to prevent large exchange rate fluctuations in its latest policy statement. 

The efforts seem to have some very short-term effects. However, we think they will unlikely reverse Yuan’s weakening trend until we see additional macro policy stimulus being rolled out and an improvement in economic fundamentals. 

USD/CNY will likely continue to stay above 7.20 and could test the 7.30 level in the near term.