Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is slightly decreasing, retreating from local highs of June 23 and a strong resistance level of 0.9000.

Investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US and Switzerland and are also analyzing US data presented yesterday: Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.0%, ahead of forecasts of 1.3%, and the initial jobless claims for the week of June 23 adjusted from 265.0K to 239.0K, while analysts had expected a figure of 266.0K.

On Friday, traders will pay attention to the statistics of the financial flows of American households: experts expect that by the end of May, personal incomes will rise by 0.4%, while spending dynamics may correct from 0.8% to 0.2%. Also, a core price index will be presented, which serves as an additional indicator of inflation in the country: the figure may be 4.7% YoY and 0.4% MoM, unchanged from April.

In turn, Switzerland will publish statistics on the real volume of retail trade: forecasts suggest a fall in May by 2.5% after a decline of 3.7% earlier, while the June index of leading indicators from the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) may correct from 90.2 points to 86.4 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately declining: the price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, quickly approaching its highs, reflecting that the US dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9036, 0.9100, 0.9150.

Support levels: 0.8960, 0.8918, 0.8880, 0.8850.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 0.9000 with the target at 0.9100. Stop loss – 0.8960. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 0.9000 and a breakdown of 0.8960 with the target at 0.8880. Stop loss – 0.9000.