ASX 200: UPWARD CORRECTION AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF DECLINING INFLATION IN AUSTRALIA

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ASX 200: UPWARD CORRECTION AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF DECLINING INFLATION IN AUSTRALIA
Scenario
TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point7270.0
Take Profit7460.0
Stop Loss7200.0
Key Levels6940.0, 7130.0, 7270.0, 7460.0
Alternative scenario
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point7130.0
Take Profit6940.0
Stop Loss7200.0
Key Levels6940.0, 7130.0, 7270.0, 7460.0

Current trend

The leading index of the Australian economy ASX 200 shows corrective dynamics near the level of 7195.0.

The Australian stock market continues to correct, reacting positively to lower inflationary pressures: on an annualized basis, the Consumer Price Index fell from 6.8% to 5.6%, which turned out to be better than the projected 6.1%, and the growth rate of the index reached its lowest level since April 2022. These data made experts confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at the next meeting will keep the interest rate at 4.10%, given that the Governor of the regulator, Philip Lowe, had previously argued that officials' decisions are now entirely based on macroeconomic statistics.

The pressure on the stock index is also exerted by the domestic bond market, which is held at the highs of the year: 10-year Treasuries are trading at 3.9310%, up 1.08% from yesterday's close, 20-year Treasuries are trading at 4.238%, up 1.68% since the start of the day, and 30-year bonds are now yielding 4.259%, which is 2.13% higher than the closing levels of yesterday's trading.

The growth leaders in the index are Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd. ( 4.41%), Mesoblast Ltd. ( 3.92%), EML Payments Ltd. ( 4.07%), Pintsbet Holdings Ltd. ( 4.88%).

Among the leaders of the decline are Bega Cheese Ltd. (-5.79%), Collins Foods Ltd. (-3.82%), Resolute Mining Ltd. (-2.50%), Charter Hall Retail REIT (-3.39%).

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is holding in the local descending corridor with dynamic boundaries 7200.0–6950.0, once again reaching the resistance line at 7200.0.

Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty, slowing down the sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line again and narrowing the fluctuation range, while the AO histogram forms corrective bars being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 7130.0, 6940.0.

Resistance levels: 7270.0, 7460.0.

ASX 200: UPWARD CORRECTION AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF DECLINING INFLATION IN AUSTRALIA

Trading tips

If the asset reverses and continues growing, and the price consolidates above the local resistance at 7270.0, long positions with a target of 7460.0 and stop-loss of 7200.0 will be relevant. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

If the asset continues declining and the price consolidates below 7130.0, short positions can be opened with the target at 6940.0. Stop-loss — 7200.0.

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