Current trend

The GBP/USD pair is trading higher, recovering from an uncertain decline for six trading sessions in a row. As a result of the actions of the "bears", the instrument retreated to local lows of June 15, but the dollar failed to consolidate on new levels. Investors are waiting for the speeches of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the publication of macroeconomic statistics during the week.

In particular, on Thursday, June 29, the final data on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter will be presented in the United States: forecasts do not imply a revision of the annual indicator from the previous value of 1.3%. Similar statistics on the British economy will appear on Friday, and analysts expect GDP growth at the previous 0.1% QoQ and 0.2% YoY. Speeches by the heads of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are scheduled for tomorrow: market participants expect to receive confirmation of further tightening of monetary policy by both regulators. The British regulator raised the interest rate by 50 basis points at once at its last meeting.

In the meantime, data on BRC Shop Price Index published the day before showed a moderate decline from 9.0% to 8.4% in May, which can be interpreted as an indirect weakening of inflation in the country. In turn, the Retail Price Index from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) recorded an increase from -10.0 points to -9.0 points. The high cost of living continues to put pressure on households, but representatives of most retailers expressed hope for the stabilization of sales volumes next month.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range is actively narrowing, pointing at the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is falling, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic approached the level of "20" and reversed into a horizontal plane, signaling significant risks of the pound being oversold in the near future.

Resistance levels: 1.2747, 1.2800, 1.2847, 1.2900.

Support levels: 1.2690, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2400.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 1.2747 with the target of 1.2847. Stop-loss — 1.2690. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

The return of a "bearish" trend with the breakdown of 1.2690 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 1.2600. Stop-loss — 1.2747