CAD is, quietly, the top G10 currency this month. Economists at Société Générale analyze USD/CAD outlook.

Loonie tends to do well when Fed rates peak

The top G10 currency in June is the Canadian Dollar. It tends to do well when Fed rates peak, and while the outlook for Fed Funds is cloaked in plenty of uncertainty, we’re in the final stage of this tightening cycle. 

With the FOMC still warning of further hikes and wildfires likely to affect Canadian growth data, the fall back to the mid-1.20s won’t be in a straight line, but we think that’s where we are heading.