Since EUR/CHF tested the parity threshold at the end of Q1, we have witnessed progressive CHF gains. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets analyze the pair’s outlook.

CHF to lag in the coming quarters

Although the central bank remains wary of the impact of higher rates on the real estate market, we’d expect the SNB to follow through with an additional 25 bps policy hike at the next policy meeting (June 22nd). However, the SNB is likely to be wary of the policy rate reaching 2%, due to ongoing real estate concerns.

We’d expect recent CHF resilience to moderate, this comes as we expect the CHF to gradually depreciate versus the EUR.