Economists at CIBC Capital Markets discuss GBP/USD outlook.
Recessions risks are overpriced
In the wake of core prices gaining a full percentage point since the start of the year, the market has materially boosted BoE terminal rate assumptions towards 5.50%, stoking renewed recession concerns. However, we expect the terminal rate to top out at 5.00%, as rates in excess of such levels would amplify recession risks.
Early signs of a rollover in food prices, while labour markets and wages appear set to moderate, point towards a graduated reduction in UK terminal rate assumptions in the next few months.
But looking beyond, we don’t expect a recession in the UK. As such, an easing in recession fears combined with a softer USD should support the broad GBP recovery narrative.
GBP/USD – Q3 2023: 1.24 | Q4 2023: 1.27
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
더 오래된 의견은 없습니다. 소파를 가장 먼저 잡으십시오.