WHEN IS THE AUSTRALIAN Q1 2023 GDP RELEASE AND HOW COULD IT AFFECT AUD/USD?

Australian GDP overview

Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) surprise increase in interest rates and expectations of solid economic recovery highlights Australia’s first-quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Wednesday, for the AUD/USD pair traders.

The recent data from Australia portray a mixed picture as downbeat housing market data, inflation numbers and mixed employment report contrasts with upbeat Retail Sales. Even with these statistics in mind, the Aussie Q1 GDP is likely to print slightly softer figures and could prod the AUD/USD bulls.

That said, forecasts suggest the annualized pace of economic growth to come in at 2.4%, softer than the previous period's 2.7%, while the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) numbers could ease with 0.3% growth figures versus 0.5% prior.

Ahead of the outcome, Analysts at ANZ said,

Market is expecting a 0.3% q/q rise in GDP. We are a touch above at 0.4%.

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

AUD/USD stays on the front foot for the consecutive fifth day as bulls prod the highest level in three weeks, marked the previous day, after witnessing hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe, as well as the RBA’s surprise rate lift. Adding strength the Aussie pair’s run-up could be the cautious optimism in the market, as well as hopes of economic recovery in China.

It’s worth noting, however, that the upside limit to the RBA rates appears too close to hit and Governor Lowe also said, “Ambition is to navigate narrow path where inflation returns to target and economy grows.” With this, challenges for the Aussie bulls are high in a case where the Australian Q1 GDP disappoints the markets. Even so, China’s trade figures for May and concerns about RBA can keep the AUD/USD bulls on the lookout for more clues.

Hence, AUD/USD is likely to remain firmer despite an anticipated weakness in the Aussie growth figures. Even if the figures mark extreme disappointment, the downside might turn out as ephemeral amid the hawkish RBA concerns and also due to the Fed blackout period.

Technically, an upside break of the previous support line stretched from early March, around 0.6620 by the press time, joins successful trading beyond the 50-DMA of around 0.6665 to enable the AUD/USD bulls to aim for the 200-DMA hurdle of near the 0.6700 threshold