• Oil price recovers after the steep sell-off on Thursday due to mixed messaging from OPEC members.
• Russia’s Novak says production cuts are unlikely whilst Saudi Oil Minister seems to imply the opposite. 
• US Dollar corrects after strong rally, giving Oil a backdraught.  

Oil price steadies on Friday after the previous day’s tumble, as traders weigh conflicting messages from two of the largest members of OPEC and the US Dollar weakens. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that he did not think further cuts would be announced, when only a few days earlier, the Saudi Oil Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, seemed to suggest the opposite. The next OPEC meeting is on June 4. 

At the time of writing, WTI Oil is trading in the upper $72s and Brent Crude Oil in the upper $76s.  

Oil news and market movers 

• Russia’s Novak plays down the idea of production cuts, saying, “I don't think that there will be any new steps, because just a month ago certain decisions were made regarding the voluntary reduction of oil production by some countries..." 
• This seems to contradict comments from Saudi Oil Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who said on Tuesday speculators (interpreted as short-sellers by the media) should “watch out”, seeming to imply OPEC may announce cuts. 
• Abdulaziz defended OPEC’s decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting in October 2022. Given the Oil price is at similar levels to October, it further suggests a possible supply cut in June. 
• The US Dollar weakens on Friday as traders take profit after the recent rally and cautiously await Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data – the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – and Durable Goods data out at 14:30 GMT. 
• A lack of traction in US debt-ceiling talks weighs on the Oil price as it raises the specter of the US defaulting, triggering a global recession.
• That said, past experience points to a high likelihood of the two parties agreeing a last minute deal which will act as a bullish catalyst for Oil. 

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Triangle formation hinting end of downtrend?

WTI Oil is in a long-term downtrend from a technical perspective, making successive lower lows. Given the old adage that the trend is your friend, this favors short positions over long positions. WTI Oil is trading below all the major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and all the weekly SMAs except the 200-week, which is at $66.90