MILD RECESSION TO KICK-START THE BULL TREND FOR US EQUITIES – SOCGEN

Economists at Société Générale see the upcoming mild recession as a catalyst to kick-start the bull trends for US equities.

Mild recession = restart of the secular bull run

“Seven of the last eight Fed hiking cycles triggered an economic recession, and US stocks historically do not bottom until a recession has started. Our base case remains unchanged, namely, we expect a US recession to begin in 1H24, and believe a mild recession would be a catalyst for a re-start of a secular bull market in US stocks. Until then, we expect US stocks to stay in a range of 3500-4200.”

“Within US stocks, we prefer Defensive Growth over Value, Large cap over Small cap and Staples and Industrials over Consumer cyclicals and Financials