Economists at BBH said in their latest note that the recent relentless US Dollar (USD) selling was interrupted by a strong rebound on Friday that followed the release of the retail sales data and hawkish Fed comments.
Additional quotes:
“DXY is up for the second straight day and trading near 101.714. A break above 102.036 Is needed to set up a test of the April 10 high near 102.807.”
“Fed tightening expectations have picked up a bit. WIRP suggests nearly 90% odds of a 25 bp hike at the May 2-3 meeting, up from 70% at the start of last week and 50% at the start of the week before that. Small odds of another 25 bp hike in June has crept back into the market. After that, only one cut is priced in by year-end vs. two at the start of last week. In that regard, Powell has said that Fed officials “just don’t see” any rate cuts this year. If a second hike gets more priced in while a rate cut gets more priced out, this should help the dollar get more traction.”
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