USD/CNH RISKS EXTRA LOSSES BELOW 6.8500 – UOB

Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group suggest a deeper drop in USD/CNH is likely on a sustainable breach of 6.8500.

24-hour view: “We expected USD to edge lower yesterday. However, we noted the mild downward momentum and held the view that any decline is unlikely to challenge 6.8500. USD dropped to a low of 6.8672 in NY trade. Downward momentum has improved, albeit not much. Today, USD is likely to trade with a downward bias but a clear break below 6.8500 is unlikely. Resistance is at 6.8780, followed by 6.8850.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Our most recent narrative from Monday (10 Apr, spot at 6.8800) wherein we held the view that USD is likely to trade sideways between 6.8500 and 6.9200 for now. There is no change in our view for now even though, downward momentum is showing tentative signs of building. However, USD has to break clearly below 6.8500 before a sustained decline is likely. The likelihood of USD breaking below 6.8500 will increase in the next few days as long as USD stays below 6.9000.”