Danske Bank

“While lower energy prices will ease March headline inflation to around 0.2% MoM, we expect core inflation to remain elevated at 0.4%.”

ANZ

“We expect both core and headline CPI inflation to have risen by 0.5% MoM in March.”

Commerzbank

“Statisticians are likely to report a drop in the inflation rate from 6.0% in February to 5.3% in March. However, the March decline is entirely due to the fact that prices are now being compared with those in March 2022, when energy prices in particular had already risen significantly due to the Ukraine war. Indications of the underlying trend are more likely to be provided by the core rate, which excludes the volatile prices for energy and food. Here we expect an increase from 5.5% to 5.7%. The MoM rates also show that inflation is hardly calming down. Compared with February, prices across all goods and services probably rose by 0.3%, excluding energy and food by as much as 0.5%.”

ING

“Markets are increasingly doubtful that the Fed will be able to hike rates much further, but that could yet change after the upcoming CPI report. Another 0.4% MoM figure on core CPI, more than double the rate required over time to take the US back to the 2% YoY inflation rate target, could nudge expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting higher. We still think the Fed would prefer to raise rates at least once more should financial conditions allow, but we see a strong probability that it reverses course and cuts rates by 100 bps later in the year as ever-tighter lending conditions, high borrowing costs, weak business sentiment and a deteriorating housing market all weigh on growth and rapidly dampen price pressures.”