“The employment report can be added to the growing list of indicators that suggest the labor market is softening directionally. While the level of many labor market gauges remain impressive, the weaker direction suggests the FOMC has the end of the tightening cycle within sight.”
“We continue to expect the FOMC will raise the fed funds rate by an additional 25 bps points on May 3 as the trend in inflation has not yet turned convincingly lower.”
“With the effects of policy tightening to date beginning to more clearly seep through to the jobs market, it may prove to be the final hike this cycle as the FOMC becomes more convinced the economy is softening sufficiently to keep inflation firmly on a downward path.”
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