BoE to choose from a dismal economic outlook and double-digit inflation

Unlike other economies, the United Kingdom has been facing issues with a dismal economic outlook, political instability along with persistent inflationary pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey remained in a fix last year in choosing between growth and inflation. Shortages of labor and higher food inflation have remained major supporters of rampant inflation.

No doubt, the Bank of England has been restricting its monetary policy to bring down the galloping inflation. The interest rate has already reached 4%. However, fresh concerns of the global banking fiasco are expected to add to more troubles for the Bank of England policymakers. Therefore, the street is not convinced about further rate hikes for now.

Analysts at Rabobank also see a quarter-point rate increase and warn that such a scenario is not fully priced in the interest market, “which indicates that the chance of a hold has increased following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).” A 25 bps rate hike by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey would push rates to 4.25%.

The action from the Pound Sterling would not be restricted to the monetary policy from the Bank of England. Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is going to drive the Bank of England’s decision-making ahead. As per the estimates, the annual headline CPI is expected to trim to 9.8% from the former release of 10.1%. While the core CPI that excludes oil and food prices would remain steady at 5.8%.