IT MIGHT GET INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR USD TO GAIN FURTHER GROUND AGAINST THE EUR – COMMERZBANK

Focus remains on US monetary policy for the time being. Economists at Commerzbank discuss the USD outlook against the Euro.

Rate expectations for the US already quite high

“Speculation as to how the rate decision in March will go and how much further the Fed will move might remain the dominant drivers for USD and thus for the EUR/USD for now. However, it might get increasingly difficult for USD to gain further ground against the Euro. A lot has already been priced in and it is going to get difficult to further fuel the market’s expectations that have already moved a long way.”

“The EUR side of things also plays a part. The question of how far monetary policy tightening is going to go also arises for the ECB. The publication of the final consumer price data yesterday, in which the core rate was revised to the upside a little further to 5.3%, reminded everyone that the ECB too has quite a bit of work ahead of it.”

“The focus currently remains on the Fed and on how far interest rates in the US will rise. The USD, therefore, seems to be decisive in providing momentum. However, that can change again very quickly.”