XAU/USD have smooth road to $1,900 as US PCE Inflation, Fed loom – Confluence Detector

Gold price (XAU/USD) sticks onto the US GDP-inflicted bearish bias as the metal traders await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index details for December. In addition to the pre-data anxiety, confirmation of the six-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern also keeps XAU/USD sellers hopeful.

The metal reversed from the nine-month high after the upbeat US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data renewed expectations of a few more rate hikes from the Fed before the policy. The personal consumption and the GDP price index details, however, challenged the hawkish bias and put a floor under the metal. Even so, the early Friday news suggesting the US House Republicans’ nearness to overcoming the debt ceiling woes seemed to have renewed the XAU/USD downside.

It should be noted, however, that the odds of witnessing a softer US inflation and a dovish Fed rate hike are too high, which in turn suggests limited downside room for the Gold price.

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the Gold price stays depressed below the $1,937-38 resistance confluence, comprising the previous weekly high and Fibonacci 61.8% on daily chart.

As a result, the Fibonacci 38.2% on weekly and Pivot Point one-month R3, respectively around $1,920 and $1,917, appear imminent levels to grab for the XAU/USD sellers.

However, a slew of technical indicators encompassing the Pivot Point one-week S1 and S2, as well as SMA 100 on four-hour play, seem to highlight the $1,900 as a tough nut to crack for the Gold bears.

Alternatively, an upside clearance of the $1,938 resistance confluence will need validation from the $1,945 hurdle, including the Pivot Point one-week R1, to convince buyers.

Following that, a run-up towards late March 2022, close to $1,966, appears an easy play for the Gold buyers.