This week we are looking at a lighter calendar in the CEE region. Light calendar means stronger FX, according to economists at ING.

EUR/HUF could test lower levels below 394

“Given the lack of regional momentum, CEE FX will be driven mainly by the global story. In general, we expect higher EUR/USD and good sentiment in Europe to keep CEE supported. Moreover, gas prices are testing lower levels again, which could be positive for the Czech Koruna and Hungarian Forint.”

“Forint should still benefit from lower-than-expected inflation and could test lower levels below 394 EUR/HUF this week. On the other hand, we think the Koruna has the strongest long positioning in the region at the moment and further gains will be difficult. Thus, we expect levels around 24.00 EUR/CZK for this week.”

“The Polish Zloty, which has lagged behind the region so far, should also see slightly stronger levels and could benefit from the regional optimism and move a bit lower below to 4.68 EUR/PLN.”