Gold price is trading close to its best levels in five months above $1,800 at the start of a new week, with risk flows dominating as China expands the covid reopening to Shanghai and Hangzhou. A better risk profile and dovish Federal Reserve expectations continue to remain a weight on the US Dollar, despite a big beat on the US Nonfarm Payrolls data. The US economy added 263,000 jobs in November, better than 200,000 but below 284,000 in October, according to the latest data released last Friday. Following the upbeat US payrolls data, markets appear convinced that the Fed’s dovish pivot could help the economy with a ‘soft landing’. The Fed has entered the ‘blackout period’ and, therefore, all eyes now remain on the US ISM Services PMI and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment data due for release this week for fresh trading impetus in Gold price.
The ISM Services PMI report will be featured in the US economic docket on Monday. The Prices Paid Index is forecast to rise to 73.6 in November from 70.7 in October. The market reaction to the ISM Manufacturing PMI suggests that the US Dollar is likely to weaken against its rivals in case the inflation component falls in November. On the other hand, An increase in the Prices Paid Index combined with a headline PMI print at around 55, as expected, should help the USD find demand and weigh on XAU/USD.
On Friday, the University of Michigan will publish the Consumer Sentiment Survey for December. Consumer confidence in the US is forecast to continue to weaken but investors are likely to react to the long-run inflation expectation print, which stood at 3% in November. An increase in this component is likely to hurt Gold price by supporting the US Dollar and vice versa.
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