GBP/AUD – Post-Brexit Sausage War

#OPINIONLEADER# #Signal#

 JUN 10, 2021

• Escalated tension between the UK and EU
• Double Top pattern in GBP/AUD (D1)

Chart 1: GBP/AUD D1 chart

(Clarification: “Sausage war” is a term describing the movement of chilled meats from the UK to Northern Ireland. It has nothing to do with fighting over sausages!)

The UK and the EU failed to finalize a solution for post-Brexit trade with Northern Ireland during a meeting yesterday. Prior to the departure of the UK from the EU, both parties agreed on not putting up a border between The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Instead, goods entering Northern Ireland from the other parts of the UK will undergo checks before entering the European Single Market once the Brexit transition period ends.

However, the UK has not been able to set up formal checks to date and has mentioned during the meeting yesterday that it may again extend a grace period on waiving checks on some food. As a result, this upset the EU, causing it to issue a stern warning to the UK and potentially carrying out legal actions. This may also lead to an eventual imposition of tariffs and quotas.

Due to the escalated tension, the British pound took a hit and weakened across the board. At the moment, the forming of a Double Top pattern in GBP/AUD (D1) is close to completion. Our technical indicators are also showing signs of a strong downward momentum. Look for selling opportunities if GBP/AUD breaks below the neckline.

Double Top Setup for GBP/AUD (D1)

Sell Stop order at 1.81800

Upcoming major news that may impact price movement of GBP/AUD

11 June – Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking at 1630 (GMT+8)

15 June – Reserve Bank of Australia releasing monetary policy meeting minutes at 0930 (GMT+8)

15 June – UK employment data release at 1400 (GMT+8)

16 June – UK CPI data release at 1400 (GMT+8)

17 June – Australian employment data release at 0930 (GMT+8)

18 June – UK retail sales data release at 1400 (GMT+8)

18 June – UK consumer inflation expectations data release at 1630 (GMT+8)

23 June – Australian Flash PMI data release at 0700 (GMT+8)

23 June – UK Flash PMI data release at 1630 (GMT+8)

24 June – Bank of England monetary policy decision at 1900 (GMT+8)