Gold Takes a Tumble, Next Mover: Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Payrolls

The downward spiral lingers for gold. Despite a momentary respite when the bulls resurfaced to lead the price to $1,722, the bulls could not sustain their momentum and eventually, XAU/USD took a dip again. At the time of writing, the price is at $1,704.40. It is trading well below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), depicted in purple below, which indicates a bearish trend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also supporting the bearish trend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31, a stone throw’s away from oversold territory.

Analyst Anil Panchal from FX Street believes that the bears are heading for $1,677, which is a falling support line from August. He reports that this based on the fact that trading has been sustained below the low of Nov 2020, which is near $1,765.

Meanwhile, the current price of spot gold is at $1,721.97. 

Source: Yahoo Finance

Taking a look at the broader market, the first report about the U.S. labour market for this week, which is the ADP Employment Change, has been released. Unfortunately, it came in at 117,000 instead of the expected result of 177,000. In comparison, January’s results stood at 174,000. Will the weaker trend be reflected in this week’s initial jobless claims and the nonfarm payrolls results? A soft recovery in the labour market will not bode well for traders looking forward to an economy rebound. Needless to say, the results of the initial jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls would be closely anticipated and watched.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)’s Summary of Commentary on the Current Economic Conditions, or Beige Book, indicated a modest expansion in the economy for January and February, with business owners being increasingly positive on economic recovery in line with the vaccination progress, as reported by Bloomberg earlier today.

With President Biden assuring a sufficient supply of vaccines for U.S adults by end of May, all eyes will now be on the progress of the Biden Stimulus Package in the U.S. Senate now. The Democrats are gunning for the stimulus package to be passed next week, as the clock ticks on the expiry of unemployment benefits on March 14.

A further increase in risk-on sentiment would be leverage for the cause of the gold bears, so what will the coming days hold for gold?

XAU/USD (as of Mar 4, 2021, 11 a.m., GMT +8) - $1,707.40

FOLLOWME XAU/USD User Sentiment (as of Mar 4, 2021 at 11.40 a.m.)

Short – 47.15%

Long – 52.85%