Photo: Reuters
(Reuters) - After a decade of central bank bond buying, fund managers have begun to wonder if there is again money to be made in betting or hedging against volatility in the bond market caused by an economic recovery next year.
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Bank of America (BofA) MOVE Index, which tracks expectations of volatility in Treasuries, is again languishing near all-time lows after a spike in March was quelled by U.S. Federal Reserve intervention.
But a handful of fund managers, and some major banks, warn of the risk of a spike in inflation next year that could spur losses for bond funds and more volatility before the Fed steps back in, or eventually even change the central bank's stance.
As central bank bond purchases suppress rate volatility, investors have turned to markets like stocks and foreign exchange for signals on the macroeconomic outlook.
Wall Street's consensus is that inflation will remain fairly dormant.
U.S. 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS), or inflation-linked bonds, show the anticipated "break-even" rate of inflation in five years at around 1.67%, below the Fed's average target of 2%.
Yields on both 5-year and 10-year TIPS have been firmly in negative territory since March and are currently at -1.31% and -0.92% respectively.
Original article:
면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.
더 오래된 의견은 없습니다. 소파를 가장 먼저 잡으십시오.