【WisunoFX斯瑞 技术图表】本周交易技术分析

中国统计数据以及美国失业率

欧洲和日本的贸易平衡数据或通胀数据也将出炉，在前几周就预测到了主要的数值且技术方面值得大家关注。

Attention to statistics: stat data from China plus US unemployment.

The data from Europe and Japan, the same trade balance or inflation figures, will also come out. We received the main statistical directions weeks earlier and now it is worth focusing on technical issues.

数据公布

本周中国将公布工业生产、零售额和失业率的数据，这些数据都是至关重要的。若数据的指标滞后，与近几周可能发生的变化几乎没有联系。今年的工业生产和零售额作为确认指标，不太可能会影响股票报价的动态（图1）。

（图1）

中国的失业数据已基本与疫情发生前持平，这是美国和欧洲都无法达到的（图2）。

（图2）

China will publish data on industrial production, retail sales and unemployment this week. All these outgoing data are critically important, the outgoing statistics for a one-year period, which means that the indicators are lagging and have little connection with possible changes in recent weeks.Industrial production for the year and retail sales as a confirming indicator and are unlikely to somehow affect the dynamics of stock quotes (Fig. 1). In terms of unemployment figures, China is already approaching pre-pandemic levels, which neither the United States nor Europe has yet been able to achieve (Fig. 2).

今日关注

周二美国将公布其零售销售数据。与上月相比，预计增长0.6%（不包括汽车）和0.5%，但从动态来看，复苏势头显然继续减弱（图3）。

（图3）

从技术上讲，在经历了从103.2美元到日元的强劲上涨冲动后，日元汇率调整了三分之一。数值还在继续上涨是否能达到104.6（图4）。与此同时，在104.6-113.8区间内保持平衡的可能性仍然存在。

（图4）

A day later on Tuesday, the US will report its retail sales figures. 0.6% (excluding cars) and 0.5% growth over the previous month are expected, but looking at the dynamics, it is clear that the recovery momentum continues to fade (Fig. 3). Technically, after a strong impulse of strengthening from 103.2 dollar to yen, it corrected one third of the way. The very key moment of the struggle for the level of 104.6 continues, the market is waiting for news how soon and how much the authorities are ready to devalue the currency (Fig. 4). In the meantime, the chances for a balance within the range 104.6-113.8 remain.

黄金关注

黄金是抵御通胀的一种资产，所有的数据都是透过黄金的价格来预测的。但如果以美国的CPI数据和密歇根大学的预值，黄金的增长是提前发生的。尽管没有加速通胀，但如此大量的涌入和低利率迟早会使美元贬值（图5）。

（图5）

对黄金增长由2016变至1911年进行评估，就会发现有时任何资产的增长都需要“燃料”（图6）。

（图6）

Gold acts as an asset to protect against inflation and all expectations are expressed precisely in the price of the yellow metal. But if you look at the CPI figures from the USA and the expectations of the University of Michigan, it becomes clear that the growth of gold took place as if in advance. That is, despite the lack of inflation acceleration, everyone understands that such amounts of the poured in and a low interest rate, sooner or later, will devalue the dollar (Fig. 5). Just assess globally the path of gold growth for the period from 2016 to resistance at 1911 ... Sometimes any asset simply needs "fuel" to continue its growth (Fig. 6).

失业数据关注

失业救济金的下一个数字预计将下降到70.7万。根据周四的费城制造业指数数据，我们发现大量的激励措施正在下滑（图7）。

（图7）

在该指数中，超过了关键的3523，预期当局即将宣布下万亿美元的经济援助计划。分析师认为以目前的市场价格，风险被极度高估了（图8）。

（图8）

The next figures for unemployment benefits are expected to decline to 707K. In addition, we look at the figures of the Philadelphia manufacturing index on the same day (Thursday) and here we also conclude that the poured incentives are becoming insufficient, the impulse begins to weaken (Fig. 7). In the index,holding above the key local 3523, as if expecting that the authorities are about to announce the next trillion dollar economic aid package. In turn, I believe that at current prices the risks are extremely overestimated. (Fig. 8).

欧元对美元

欧元对美元汇率继续在1.16-1.19区间徘徊，目前看来，欧元对美元汇率已准备好跌破1.16或改写新高。从根本上讲，欧元相对较弱，但对美国可能出台的刺激措施的预期只会这一货币保持在它应有的高度（图9）。

（图9）

The euro continues to wander in the range of 1.16-1.19 against the dollar, the balance is maintained, although at the moment it seemed that the price was ready to fly below 1.16 or rewrite new highs. Fundamentally, the euro is, of course, much weaker, but expectations about possible stimulus measures from the US just make the instrument not lose height (Fig. 9).

英镑关注

英国脱欧带来的压力、失败的经济数据以及新冠流行的后果可能已经让英镑到了1.272的水平。但与欧元一样，仍然存在1.3335的差额（图10）。

（图10）

A similar picture is for the pound, where the obvious pressure from Brexit, unsuccessful economic figures and the consequences of the pandemic could have already brought the Briton to at least the 1.272 area. But in the same way as with the euro, the balance at 1.3335 remains (Fig. 10).

美元对加元

从技术上讲，美元对加元的支持率在1.30但从根本上讲，加拿大经济似乎更脆弱，严重依赖于与美国的贸易伙伴关系。尽管如此，从1.46恢复到1.30似乎有些不现实，这些都是货币供应量扩张的后果。1.30-1.354区间的命运将取决于美国的新措施以及加拿大当局是否会采用类似的方法（图11）。

（图11）

Technically, the retest of the dollar's support against the Canadian dollar at 1.30 occurred even more clearly. It is clear that fundamentally the Canadian economy looks more vulnerable and relies heavily on trade partnerships with the United States. Nevertheless, it seems somewhat unrealistic to return from 1.46 to 1.30, but these are the consequences of the expansion of the money supply, and the fate of the 1.30-1.354 range will depend on new measures both from the United States and whether the Canadian authorities will be similar to similar methods (Fig. 11).