DAILY NOTION: The Crypto Daily – The Movers and Shakers for Nov 16, 2020

16 Nov 2020, 10:38 · Views 398

DAILY NOTION: The Crypto Daily – The Movers and Shakers for Nov 16, 2020

It’s a bearish start to the day for the majors. A Bitcoin move back through to $16,000 levels should support the pack.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 0.58% on Sunday. Following on from a 1.54% slide on Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week up by 3.00% to $15,965.

It was a mixed start to the day. Recovering from an early morning low $15,870.1, Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high $16,151.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $16,343, Bitcoin slid to a late intraday low $15,794.0.

Cardano’s ADA (+0.01%), Ethereum (+0.32%), Litecoin (+1.49%), Polkadot (+0.41%), and Ripple’s XRP (+0.28%) found early support.

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It’s never boring these days. Recall that there are times when the S&P 500 goes 100 days or more without making a 1% intraday move. But big moves are the norm nowadays — and they aren’t bullish. Neither is the fact that the many of the worst of the low-quality stocks that are down still down 80%-90% from highs are continuing to spike. Much, probably most, of the recent rally action for those and other downtrodden stocks has resulted from short covering. Short-selling is when people borrow stock from their broker to sell it immediately, hoping to buy it back at a lower price, return it to the lender and pocket the difference. Short covering is when the trader buys the shares to close out a short position. Short-selling got to be very profitable for a month or two when the stock market was tanking in May and June. But, of course, the action brought in too many short-sellers, which made it crowded. That crowd has thinned out in the past couple weeks. Here are five main reasons I expect a “Big Broad Sell-Off” in coming days and weeks: 1. We had an historic Bubble Of All Bubbles that just popped over the past year. I don’t think the odds favor a quick resolution in the midst of a new Federal Reserve/inflation paradigm. 2. Valuations for most of the former high-flyers that have crashed and then bounced are still too high to be good risk/reward for the long-term. 3. Everyone seems to agree that the Fed can and will simply go back to easy money policies in two months or six months or something. I don’t think the Fed/inflation playbook that will work for the next 10 years or longer is the same playbook that has worked for the last 40 years. 4. Crypto’s crash doesn’t seem like to be over, and I don’t think the tech stock market can bottom until crypto finishes washing out. Too many people who own cryptos that are 70% to 95% off their all-time highs from last year are still talking trash to crypto bears and crypto luddites: “You’re so stupid if you can’t understand that my crapcoin is going to go back up to its all-time highs after this latest crypto winter is over.” I have people talking trash to me who have lost tons of money on cryptos that I had warned them to get out of before they crashed. It reminds me of the time when I was leading the state in scoring but my team was 5-17 on the year. 5. I expect a Big Broad Sell-Off because greed seems to be back driving the market action lately. Many of the trashed former high-flyers that were down 90% or more are now up 50% or more from their lows (which means that those stocks are still down 80%-90% from their all-time highs and almost none of them are ever going back to those levels.Selling and ‘shorting’ Stocks are up big since my early summer bullishness about buying stocks during the panicky selling action. I’ve raised some cash since then in my personal account by selling some names completely, such as PayPal PYPL, +2.01% and Alibaba BABA, -0.11%. In the hedge fund, I have been shorting some of the hyped-up, rallied-up solar stocks, including the Invesco Solar ETF TAN, +1.31%. I’m also staying short some of the worst electric vehicle manufacturers, such as Fisker FSR, +3.90%, although I covered some of it just yesterday. I think we’ll look back in two months’ time and say this sort of thing: “How did all those crappy stocks go up so much so quickly this summer?”Rise of Rocket Lab Rocket Lab RKLB, +21.16%, which I’ve written about many times over the last year here on MarketWatch, had a great quarter, beating the topline estimates by 10%-plus and guiding next quarter up by 10%-plus. In updating its numbers on a price-to-profit (PP) ratio spreadsheet, it’s cheaper today than it was yesterday even with Friday’s 20% pop in the stock, because adding 10% to the current year’s estimates magnifies profitability in the future years. I’m mostly sitting tight with this name. I wouldn’t go selling a bunch of your long-term stocks or try to game a potential market downturn. We did some buying at those lows that are far away right now and there’s no reason to feel rushed to make your next long-term move. Easy does it, as always. Cody Willard is a columnist for MarketWatch and editor of the Revolution Investing newsletter. Willard or his investment firm may own, or plan to own, securities mentioned in this column.

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Any individual who followed Matt Damon’s advice that “fortune favors the brave” during the Super Bowl and invested $1,000 in the crypto markets have seen staggering losses, with the value of those assets dropping more than 60 %. This small slice of activity in the crypto markets demonstrates two major issues with this new asset class: its historical volatility and a lack of education about these assets among most would-be investors. Given that, as well as a cautionary regulatory environment, it’s clear that at this time, crypto has no place in defined-contribution plan lineups. This hasn’t stopped some DC plan administrators from soon making digital assets available to plan participants, if the plan sponsor decides to make this feature available. Read: This is why bitcoin won’t ‘diversify’ your 401(k) Defined-contribution plan sponsors will likely keep a close eye on these moves to make crypto more accessible to DC plan participants. For now though, we at Mercer do not view cryptocurrency or crypto-related assets as suitable investment options in a defined-contribution plan. Here are three key reasons why: 1. Volatility Proponents of cryptocurrencies point out that Bitcoin last year became the highest performing asset class of the decade, with an annualized return of 230 percent, when its price reached $60,000. But since then, its price has dropped precipitously, sitting at around $21,500 as of July 27. Of course, much of the stock market has entered bear market territory, bringing crypto along with it. But volatility is par for the course in crypto. According to a Mercer analysis, the annualized standard deviation of monthly returns of Bitcoin from 2015 to 2020 was approximately 80 percent, at least four times the volatility of publicly traded equities. Many experienced crypto investors may understand that these new markets reach new highs then crash in cycles, but it’s likely that most defined-contribution plan participants do not. Most participants don’t have the appetite for such high volatility—after all, as the primary vehicle that people rely on for their retirements, DC plans generally avoid making highly volatile asset classes available to participants on a stand-alone basis. Read: Why target-date funds may be sabotaging your retirement 2. Lack of education Given the amount of mainstream coverage around crypto, it can be assumed that these assets have become mainstream. However, only 16% of Americans said last year that they have invested in them. Based on Mercer’s work with some of the largest defined-contribution plan administrators, much is still to be done to educate plan participants on building a portfolio with crypto assets. This is vital, as learning about these markets can be confusing and time-consuming—a sobering fact in the face of Americans’ lack of financial literacy and their desire for professionals to help them plan for retirement. Learn how to shake up your financial routine at the Best New Ideas in Money Festival on Sept. 21 and Sept. 22 in New York. Join Carrie Schwab, president of the Charles Schwab Foundation. 3. The regulatory environment Although many in the crypto industry cheered when President Joe Biden signed an executive order in March instructing federal agencies to study and report on digital assets, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned that the regulatory environment around crypto may create more confusion in the markets. The day after the president’s order, the Department of Labor warned 401(k) plans to “exercise extreme care” about including crypto in portfolios. The agency wrote, “At this early stage in the history of cryptocurrencies, the Department has serious concerns about the prudence of a fiduciary’s decision to expose a 401(k) plan’s participants to direct investments in cryptocurrencies, or other products whose value is tied to cryptocurrencies.” The department cited crypto’s speculative and volatile nature as well as the difficulty to understand them as factors in its warning. (There is pending litigation against the DOL seeking to vacate this guidance, stating that where “assets may be invested should not be subject to the arbitrary whims of an agency that has no such authority.”)

Given the rapid decline of crypto markets, many believe regulators may soon place restrictions on the market. Hence, it’s prudent for defined-contribution plan sponsors to take a data-driven approach to including these assets in DC plan menus, despite a likely small minority of participants who may be requesting them. The crypto markets are constantly evolving, so it’s possible that the factors outlined above may be mitigated. But until then, we at Mercer feel that crypto does not belong in retirement accounts. Holly Verdeyen is partner and U.S. Defined Contribution Leader at asset management firm Mercer. Click here to see Mercer’s important notices.

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