Daily Market Report - 8th Sep 2020

$50 Free Margin Account Campaign: 

https://www.nooralmal.com/cc19...

EURUSD

Financial markets were due to a slow start to the week, amid a holiday in the US and Canada. The risk-related sentiment was sour during Asian trading hours, improving as the European session developed yet triggering no action among currencies. The greenback retained its strength, advancing mainly against its European rivals. Data coming from the Union was mixed, as German Industrial Production shank 10.% YoY in July, much worse than anticipated, but the EU Sentix Investors Confidence Index improved in September to -8 from -13.4 in August.

This Tuesday, Germany will publish its July Trade Balance, while the EU will unveil the final reading of Q2 GDP, foreseen unchanged at -12.1%. The US will have another light session, as it will publish the August NFIB Business Optimism Index and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for September.

The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.1820 at the end of the day, with a short-term bearish bias. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA maintains its bearish slope below the 100 SMA, capping intraday advances. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain directionless within negative levels. A steeper decline is to be expected on a break below 1.1760, a strong static support level.

Support levels: 1.1810 1.1760 1.1710

Resistance levels: 1.1890 1.1940 1.2000

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair spent the day hovering around 106.20, ending the day with modest gains. Without activity around US government bond yields, the pair was unable to move. Data coming from Japan was mixed, as the country published the preliminary estimate of July Leading Economic Index, which improved to 86.9, better than the 84.6 expected. The Coincident Index for the same period, however, came in at 76.2, missing expectations of 79.

The macroeconomic calendar in Japan will be quite busy this Tuesday, as the country will publish the July Current Account, and the final reading of Q2 GDP, foreseen at -8.1% from a previous estimate of -7.8%. The country will also unveil the preliminary estimate of August Machine Tool Orders previously at -31.1%. Finally, the country will release the August Eco Watchers Survey on the current situation, foreseen at 33.3 from 41.1 in the previous month.

The short-term picture for the USD/JPY pair is neutral, as the pair has been confined to a tight intraday range for the third consecutive journey. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is resting above its 20 SMA, which lost strength upward but holds above the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere around their midlines. The pair needs to advance beyond 106.70 to have chances of extending its advance during the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 105.90 105.50 105.10

Resistance levels: 106.35 106.70 107.10

GBPUSD

The pound was the weakest USD rival at the beginning of the week, with GBP/USD falling to 1.3139, its lowest in over a week. The pair was weighed by mounting tensions between the EU and the UK as every day it seems less likely that they could reach a post-Brexit trade deal. This Monday, the EU Commission said that they would do everything possible to reach an agreement aligned with the EU’s long term interest, but also noted that “the UK's decision to leave the single market will inevitably create barriers,” adding they are ready to trade with the kingdom under WTO terms.  

 UK PM Johnson, on the other hand, said that if a deal is not reached by October 15, Britain will accept no deal and move on. Tensions remain around the fishing industry and state aid. The UK will publish during the Asian session, August BCR Like-for-Like Retail Sales, seen at 5.7% from 4.3% in the previous month. Later in the day, the focus will be on the Inflation Report Hearings.

 The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3160 ahead of the Asian opening, bearish according to intraday technical readings. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is developing below its 20 and 100 SMA, with the shortest accelerating south, still above the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels, with the Momentum indicator aiming to recover some ground and the RSI flat at 35, keeping the risk skewed to the downside.

Support levels: 1.3230 1.3190 1.3140

Resistance levels: 1.3300 1.3350 1.3395

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD pair traded lifeless around 0.7280 where it stands as a new day starts. The market ignored data coming from Australia, generally discouraging. The August AIG Performance of Services Index fell to 42.5 from 44 previously. ANZ Job Advertisements for the same month were up 1.6% following a 19.1% advance in July. China published its August trade figures, which posted a larger-than-expected surplus of $58.9B. Exports rose 9.5% although imports declined by 2.1%.

This Tuesday, Australia will publish August NAB’s Business Confidence, foreseen at -22 from -14 in the previous month. It will also release NAB’s Business Conditions for the same month, seen improving to 2 from 0.

The AUD/USD pair remains at risk of falling further, despite its latest consolidative range. The 4-hour chart shows that it is still developing below a bearish 20 SMA while holding above the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, keep holding within negative levels, with the RSI heading south at around 41.

Support levels: 0.7265 0.7220 0.7170

Resistance levels: 0.7305 0.7340 0.7380  

GOLD

Gold had a limited trading range on Monday mostly due to the Labor holiday in the US. While the USD index DXY managed to lift itself over 93.00, Gold retraced back to 1.920$ zone. On the other hand, the Chinese Trade Balance data readings came better than expected signalling the economic recovery is still intact on a global scale. Despite the recent weakness seen in Gold, 1.920$ level is still holding well as a sign of more upside effort might be on the agenda. Also, due to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report on Friday, the week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 4,559 contracts (to a weekly total of 306,118 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -5,199 contracts for the week (to a total of 75,322 contracts).       

As long as Gold stays over 1.950$, the targets upside can be followed at 1.980$ (previous all-time high), 2.000$ and 2.040$ levels. Below the 1.950$ the supports can be followed at 1.920$, 1.900$ and 1.825$ (2011 August close) levels.

Support Levels: 1.920$ 1.900$ 1.825$

Resistance Levels: 1.980$ 2.000$ 2.040$

SILVER

Silver also had a tight range, directionless trading session on Monday due to Labor Holiday in the US. Gold to Silver ratio continued to retreat below the 72.00 level indicating the better performance of Silver lately. Just like Gold, despite the recent weakness, Silver is still holding over its important support level of 26.00$ level. On the other hand, the white metal quietly printed %50 increase in value on a yearly basis.    

If Silver manages to stay over 27.00$, next targets upside might be followed at 29.28$ (March 2013 resistance) and 30.00$ levels. Below the 27.00$ level, the supports might be followed at 25.00$, 24.00$ and 23.38$ levels.

Support Levels: 25.00$ 24.00$ 23.38$

Resistance Levels: 27.00$ 29.28$ 30.00$

CRUDE WTI

WTI extended its decline and tested its lowest level since the end of June. Earlier in the day, China's General Administration of Customs reported that crude oil imports rose by 12.6% on a yearly basis in August. This reading showed a slowdown in China's record oil purchases that was registered in the previous months and pressured the prices. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's state oil producer Aramco announced that it lowered its October official selling price (OSP) to Asia by $1.4 per barrel which also put extra pressure on WTI. 

WTI failed to extend its move-up after spending a long time between 40.00$ and 42.00$ levels. If WTI manages to hold over 40.56$ (65.62$-0.00$ %61.80) level, the targets upside can be followed at 41.00$, 46.57$ (March decline start) and 50.00$ levels. Below the 40.00$, the supports can be followed at 39.00$ and 32.81$ (65.62$-0.00$ %50) and 31.00$ levels.

Support Levels: 39.00$ 32.81$ 31.00$ 

Resistance Levels: 41.00$ 46.57$ 50.00$

DOW JONES

Markets were closed in the US due to Labor Holiday on Monday while the futures market showed some improvement after the sharp sell-off move seen last week. In a press conference on Monday, President Trump stated that a surprise is on the way about vaccine development as early as October. Also, the president added that the US will prohibit federal contracts to companies that outsource to China, as reported by Reuters.   

From the technical point of view, over the physiological 28.000 level, 28.400 can be followed as next resistance while below 27.770 level the supports can be seen at 27.400, 27.000 and 26.757 (24.680-27.400 %23.60) levels.

Support Levels: 27.700 27.400 27.000

Resistance Levels: 28.400 29.000 29.500

MACROECONOMIC EVENTS

* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.

Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

All Rights Reserved © Noor Al Mal

#无协议脱欧风险又来##美股狂飙要到头了吗##8月非农持续向好##全球央行年会##黄金涨不动了吗#