Gold gets the best of both US fiscal negotiations and potential stimulus agreement – HSBC

US fiscal negotiations should be positive for gold, while the yellow metal may consolidate recent gains in the near-term. All in all, gold is still well supported in the longer-term by low yields, according to HSBC precious metals analysts.

Key quotes

“It is clear that the FOMC continues to view the economic outlook as extraordinarily uncertain, and that the economy’s path will depend heavily on how the COVID-19 pandemic evolves.Ongoing monetary accommodation from the Fed and the extraordinarily uncertain economic outlook can buoy up gold.”

“The Fed said it would extend USD liquidity swap lines for nine central banks through 31 March 2021 to serve as backstop for markets and help facilitate planning by other central banks. The Fed also has standing US dollar liquidity swap lines with the BoC, the BoE, the BoJ, the ECB, and the SNB. To an extent, this helps assure the world of adequate USD supply, and reduce financial stress and uncertainty. This should be gold negative.”

“Gold is benefitting from the uncertainty arising from the wide disagreement between Republicans and Democrats on the make-up of the fiscal stimulus but also from the expectations that a fiscal stimulus agreement will be reached. That said, gold may be consolidating some recent gains in the near-term, especially if a fresh fiscal stimulus proves USD positive, from a cyclical perspective, instead of being USD negative amid fewer ‘safe-haven’ bids.”

“Low or negative real interest rates are key to propelling gold higher. When US real yields are low or even negative, investors have no opportunity cost in owning gold. Besides, negative real US yields are likely an indicator of financial or economic stress, probably boosting ‘safe haven’ demand for gold. Furthermore, when US real yields turn negative, it may be negative for the USD, supporting gold in USD terms. Gold is still well supported in the longer-term by low yields.”

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