In the third quarter, the British economy may record the largest growth rate in decades, but the outlook has not improved;

In the third quarter, the British economy may record the largest growth rate in decades, but the outlook has not improved.

• A survey from Reuters shows that the UK economy will expand at the fastest rate in decades this quarter, because the economy is restarting extensively after the nationwide anti-epidemic lockdown measures. In the last quarter, the British economy experienced the largest contraction in hundreds of years.
• Despite recent optimism, nearly 85% of the interviewees, 32 out of 38, believe that the UK's economic outlook has remained flat or worsened in the past month, and only six said that the economic outlook has improved.
• The epidemic affects nearly 15 million people around the world, and the death rate in the UK is the highest in Europe – Although the British government requires that businesses be closed and residents to stay at home.
• But now many restrictions have been relaxed. People go out, return to work, and start spending again. Therefore, a survey conducted by Reuters on July 13 – 21 shows that the UK economy is expected to expand by 12.2% in the third quarter, higher than the 10.5% estimated last month.
• The survey predicts that the British economy is expected to shrink by a record 18.9% in the second quarter. Almost all analysts believe that the greatest threat to economic recovery will be the second wave of epidemics.
• Investec's Philip Shaw said that it is almost certain that the economy collapsed in the second quarter. The good news is that in terms of monthly trends, there are clear signs that the economy has been on an upward trajectory since May, but the challenge is of course to prevent the economy from losing momentum.
• The median value of a survey conducted by more than 70 analysts predicts that the UK economy will shrink by 9.1% this year and recover to an expansion of 6.0% by 2021. In the worst scenario, the economy will shrink by 13.0% this year.