The British pound has fallen a bit during the trading session on Tuesday but did find a bit of support just above the 50 day EMA. At this point the question now is how significant was that little “micro triple top” from the past several sessions? You can see that there are quite a few wicks at the 1.2650 level, which suggests that there is a significant amount of selling pressure just above there. Ultimately, I think that is a sign that this market will probably continue to envision that area that extends to the 1.2750 level as a bit difficult to overcome. For what it is worth, the 1.2750 level has been important more than once in the past, so I am not overly surprised that it has been somewhat reactive to the market.
If we break down below the red 50 day EMA, then it is highly likely we go looking towards 1.2250 level, an area that also has previously been important. The US dollar could strengthen in more of a “risk off” type of scenario, but at this point the Federal Reserve is working against that move as they throw money into the markets. On the other side of the Atlantic, we have the British that are also super easy with their monetary policy, and still have to deal with Brexit. Simply put, if we can break above that little “micro triple top”, then I think it is an extraordinarily bullish sign and we will eventually go looking towards 1.30 level. Otherwise, I believe that a break down below the 50 day EMA opens up the possibility of the 1.2250 level being tested for support.
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