USD/CAD Forecast July 5-10 – Canadian Dollar Jumps Despite GDP Crash 에서

06 Jul 2020, 20:00 · Views 943

USD/CAD gained 1 percent last week, its best weekly gain in a month. There are four releases in the upcoming week, including employment change. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In Canada, building permits rebounded with a sharp gain of 20.2%, crushing the estimate of 10.3 percent. This follows back-to-back declines. The Raw Materials Price Index posted a gain of 16.4% in May, the first gain since January. Canada’s GDP contracted by 11.6% in April, after a decline of 7.2% beforehand.

In the U.S., manufacturing improved sharply, as Manufacturing PMI climbed from 39.8 to 49.6 points. The estimate stood at 50.0, which separates contraction from expansion. Durable goods orders sparkled in May. The headline figure climbed 4.0%, rebounding after a decline of 7.4 percent. The core reading surged 15.8%, rebounding from a read of -17.2% beforehand. The Conference Board consumer confidence index jumped from 85.9 to 98.1 and easily beat the estimate of 91.6 points. Nonfarm payrolls shot up in June, with a gain of 4.80 million. This comes after a May release of 2.509 million. Unemployment claims dropped from 1.48 million to 1.42 million, higher than the estimate of 1.35 million.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USD/CAD Forecast July 5-10 – Canadian Dollar Jumps Despite GDP Crash

BoC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. This well-respected survey looks at a wide range of business conditions, including spending and hiring expectations. It should be treated as a market-mover.
Ivey PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. The PMI has improved dramatically in May, climbing from 22.8 to 39.12 points. The uptick is expected to continue in June, with an estimate of 50.2 points. The 50-level separates contraction from expansion.
Housing Starts: Thursday, 12:15. Housing starts improved to 193 thousand in May, up sharply from 171 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 160 thousand. The June estimate stands at 185 thousand.
Employment Report: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s economy rebounded from a loss of over 1.99 million jobs in April, with a gain of 289.6 thousand in May. Analysts are expecting better numbers in June, with a forecast of 550.0 thousand. The unemployment rate climbed from 13.0% to 13.7% in May, but this beat the forecast of 15.0%. The estimate for June is 12.5 percent.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at the round number of 1.39. This line has been a resistance line since late May. 1.3757 is next.

1.3661 (mentioned last week) has switched to a resistance role after losses by USD/CAD last week.

1.3550 is an immediate resistance line.

1.3420 is providing support.

1.3330 is next.

1.3265 is the final support level for now.

I am neutral on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar lost close to 5 percent in March but has since recovered much of these losses. The U.S dollar is a traditional safe-haven in times of crisis, but investors continue to show a willingness to buy minor currencies like the Canadian dollar.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/us...

면책 조항: 본 게시글에 표현된 견해는 전적으로 작성자의 견해이며 Followme의 공식 입장을 대변하지 않습니다. Followme는 제공된 정보의 정확성, 완전성 또는 신뢰성에 대해 책임을 지지 않으며, 서면으로 명시적으로 언급되지 않는 한 해당 내용을 기반으로 취해진 어떠한 조치에 대해서도 책임을 지지 않습니다.

이 글이 마음에 드시나요? 작성자에게 팁을 보내 감사의 마음을 전하세요.