耶伦吓坏黄金.特朗普税收晚间公布.

市场回顾与分析

美联储主席耶伦昨晚发表了讲话.具体汇总如下.

加息路径：渐进加息的不确定性增强，但若不适度上调利率，经济可能过热，且持久的宽松政策可能会损害金融稳定；

通胀目标：通胀下行压力可能持续，但这是由于短暂性因素造成的，保持政策不变直至通胀达到2%的水平是不谨慎的；

缩表问题：缩减资产负债表将会给期限溢价带来一些上行压力，不过缩减的资产负债表规模将仍比危机前的规模要大；

就业市场：数据表明劳动力市场健康，没有过热或者闲置，已经回到危机之前的水平，但存在劳动力市场不均等问题。

整体上耶伦的讲话，略微偏向于鹰派。我们在之前的文章中曾经说过，阻挡住美联储加息道路的最重要因素，就是通胀的不及预期。然而耶伦已经表态如果等到通胀回到2%再进行货币政策的收紧，则可能为时已晚。换言之，美联储年内的进一步加息，对于通胀的容忍度将提高，遑论最近一段时间以来美国连续遭遇的飓风有可能短暂提升美国的通胀水平。年底加息预期大增，美元在之后虽然有所波动，不过整体以走高为主。

特朗普的税改计划有望进一步提振美元

由于此前已经有报道称，本周中特朗普可能公布税改提议，这也为始于上周的美元反弹动能注入了新的生机。海外知名外汇资讯网站Poundsterlinglive周一(9月25日)撰文称，税收改革协议可能会对美国经济和美元带来实质性的提振。

周二(9月26日)因美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)在讲话中坚定渐进加息的立场，使得市场对2月加息的概率升至70%以上，美元兑一篮子货币短暂攀升至93.29的一个月高位。

黄金基本面分析
黄金基本面利多因素：
1.美国9月Markit服务业PMI初值为55.1，低于前值和预期。
点评：数据不及预期，利空美元，利好黄金。

2.美国8月新屋开工数为118万单元，略高于预期117.4万；但因7月新屋开工数值修正，美国8月新屋开工环比减少0.8%，增长也不及预期。
点评：数据不及预期，利空美元，利好黄金。

黄金基本面利空因素：
1.特朗普称对朝鲜动用武力并非首选，美国一高级军官表示，尽管紧张局势升级，但美国并未发现朝鲜军事态势发生改变。
点评：地缘政治局势降温，利空黄金。

2.耶伦承认可能高估通胀回升，称在通胀疲软、中性利率偏低时，渐进式加息尤其适合；行动太快有风险，但也应小心太过循序渐进。
点评：整体基调偏向鹰派。美联储货币政策紧缩，利好美元，利空黄金。

技术面分析

现货黄金四小时图.日图

https://socialstatic.fmpstatic..." style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; background-color: #eeedeb; border: 1px solid #eeedeb; background-size: 22px; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-image: url('data:image/gif;base64,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